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Vortex of the Korean Financial Crisis, by Douglas Kim
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Korea needs to brace itself for much higher interest rates in the coming years, driven by surging inflation and monetary expansion. The nearly thirty years of declining interest rates globally are near its final stages and, in the next few years, probabilities are quite high for rapidly rising interest rates. Korea faces enormous interest rate risk for the real estate sector, not just because that sector is so highly leveraged but also because so much of the real estate debt is short-term and floating-rate based. Korea needs to reduce its dependence on floating-rate interest payments, especially household loans, of which nearly 90 percent are currently represented by floating rates. Will Korea control its debt or will debt control Korea? This is a question that is yet to be settled and an ongoing question that will remain central in Korea’s efforts to spearhead the country out of this global economic crisis.
- Sales Rank: #10558816 in Books
- Brand: Brand: BookSurge Publishing
- Published on: 2010-02-19
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .46" w x 6.00" l, .61 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 200 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
There are many recent books about the American economic crisis, but few have been written about the economic situation in Korea. Vortex of the Korean Financial Crisis fills the void with an in-depth analysis of the current situation and recommendations for the future. As one of the three major Asian economies, Korea is being impacted by the global credit crisis of 2008, and the effects could be more severe and longer lasting than people realize. "Will Korea control its debt or will debt control Korea?" is the central theme of this book. Author Douglas Kim aims to educate Korean families about upcoming inflation and interest rate hikes and how they can prepare to deal with them. Kim is a native of Seoul, South Korea, and has over thirteen years of experience in industry analysis. He worked as a director of Crane Partners, a hedge fund investing in Korean companies, and at Korea Investment & Securities as the head of international equity research. Kim was also an analyst at ING Barings and Credit Suisse First Boston in the mergers and acqusitions and equity research departments. Vortex is well written and its concepts are explained in language that's easy to understand. As one might expect from an economics book, it's filled with relevant charts that illustrate savings rates, debt ratios, and more, and they're clearly explained in the text. The book focuses on the foreseeable future, and its strength is in the breadth of the analysis and recommendations on how to avoid potential debt problems stemming from the current economic crisis. While most of the charts refer to South Korea and there are few specific references to North Korea, it isn't clear what the author means when he refers to "Korea," as he does throughout the book. Readers are left to wonder whether there are differences in the economic impact of these challenges in North Korea versus South Korea due to governmental or other factors. Kim examines the trend of declining savings by individuals and the impact of rising interest rates on households, businesses, and government. He analyzes the effect of the decline in Korean population growth on tax revenue, debt paydown, and economic stimulus spending. He predicts the impact to the real estate market if the floating-rate interest rate skyrockets, including housing foreclosures. And he cautions that the likelihood of oil depletion and skyrocketing energy costs could further impact the economy because Korea lacks national resources such as oil, natural gas, and coal compared to other Asian countries. The book's best attribute is that it offers ten key recommendations for avoiding or mitigating the risk of these potential problems. Kim advocates reducing the overall amount of debt and reducing reliance on floating-rate debt by converting it to fixed-rate debt. "Korea should attempt to grow the economy in a more conservative manner by reducing reliance on foreign credit markets," he writes, later adding, "given the strategic importance of manufacturing, greater effort should be made to urge companies in Korea to retain the manufacturing base in the country." Economics students, investors, and Korean citizens should find this book helpful in learning about the influencers on the Korean economy, the reality of the current situation, and what steps can be taken proactively to avoid potential problems in the future. --Cindy Kryszak, ForeWord Reviews, April 2010
About the Author
Douglas Kim is a native of Seoul, South Korea. Mr. Kim worked as a director of Crane Partners, a hedge fund specializing in investing in Korean companies. He also worked as a director at Corevest Partners and was head of the international equity research department at Korea Investment & Securities. Mr. Kim was also an analyst at ING Barings and CSFB in the equity research and mergers and acquisition departments. He has over thirteen years of experience in analyzing various industries and over ten years of experience in covering the Korean market. Mr. Kim received his B.S. degree in economics, with a concentration in finance, from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Mr. Kim currently resides in Seoul, South Korea.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Most important book about the Korean Economy this year
By Matthew V. Smith
Douglas Kim has done a fantastic job warning people about the immanent bursting of the consumer debt bubble in Korea.
I first came to Korea in 1995 and saw prodigious saving everywhere. I moved away in 2001 and people were just starting to use credit cards. I just moved back in 2009 and I have never seen more profligate spending in my life. The television is saturated with commercials for quick cash. I knew that the Korean people were getting themselves into a heap of trouble, but I didn't have any numbers to back up my hunch and therefore could not articulate what the problem is. Douglas Kim filled that gap for me, and I am deeply thankful for his work.
I would have given the book five stars but for two reasons I didn't. First, he gets a little redundant; the book could have used some more editing. Second, he seems to maintain his faith in Keynesian economics, which is incongruous with the warnings he sounds. I'd invite Douglas to explore the The Austrian Theory of the Trade cycle and Other Essays and read Thomas Woods's Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse to disabuse himself of Keynes.
I loved this book, because in terms of research and numbers he was spot-on. I feel that with the philosophical economic errors he is unable to make connections and reach conclusions that would be even more profound. As it is, I think his advice and prescriptions for change are good and correct. Douglas Kim has the potential to be Korea's Peter Schiff or Jim Rogers and really shake things up if he wanted to.
Doug, if you read this review, please contact me. I live in Korea and I'd love to meet with you and talk about the economy here.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Timely and informative. Valuable information about one of the world's economic powers
By The bookish health nut
I received my copy of the Vortex of the Korean Financial Crisis last week and must say that it's contributed greatly to my knowledge of the Korean economy.
As an individual with a very keen interest in Asian studies and economics I was very pleased to discover this book as I've always felt there was a dearth of investing information about Korea.
Douglas Kim reveals to the reader many issues that are of interest to anyone who desires to learn more about one of Asia's economic powers. He shows the thinking that takes place in the minds of many Koreans when it comes to investing and some of the challenges that the country faces . More importantly, he provides solutions to avoid the grave problems that Korea may well face in the near future.
If you are thinking about investing in Korea then it is important to understand its culture, politics and recent business environment and Douglas Kim provides readers with excellent material here. The depth and new insights make this book very worthwhile.
I would recommend this book to anyone with an interest in Asian studies, economics, finance, or a desire to know more about one of the world's rising economic powers.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A thoughtful, revealing book on the inside story of Korean economy
By A Customer
This is a thoughtful, revealing book on the inner dynamics of the Korean economy. I learned many new interesting issues about the Korean economy, such as the surge in consumer lending practices in this country in the past ten years. It seems that the media always pays more attention to the global exporters in Korea, such as Samsung and Hyundai, but not enough consideration is given to the "ordinary" folks of Korea. Accordingly, this book shifts the focus to the Korean households with excessive leverage. I was startled by just how many Korean households rely on the adjustable rate mortgages...much more than the industry norm in the US.
This book is a warning to the many families in Korea about the dangers of excessive household debt. Douglas Kim predicts that the interest rates could move higher in the 2011 to 2013 period mainly due to higher than expected inflation rates. In that case, many families in Korea need to prepare themselves for the rocky, economic futures ahead. I strongly recommend this book to those who want to gain a better perspective on the Korean economy.
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